The role of Russia, China, and Iran in challenging US hegemony: Emerging anti-Western alliance

Image credit: thediplomat.com, "The China-Iran-Russia Triangle: Alternative World Order?"

In the contemporary geopolitical landscape, the dynamics of global power are undergoing significant transformation. Political conflicts around the globe, from Ukraine in February 2022 to Gaza in October 2023, is part of the broader contest between the liberal order led by the United States and an alternative world order spearheaded by Russia, China, and Iran. This coalition of anti-Western and emerging powers poses a substantial challenge to the US's post-Cold War hegemony. Despite their diverse interests, these nations share a common objective: to counterbalance the geopolitical and economic dominance of the United States. This article delves into the intricacies of this alliance, examining its historical context, the driving of tensions, strategic imperatives, and potential implications for global stability and international relations. Through a comprehensive analysis, it seeks to understand how the collaborative efforts of Russia, China, and Iran are reshaping the global order and challenging long-standing Western hegemony.

Background

To understand the current geopolitical situation in which the U.S. is involved, it is essential to consider the historical context of its development. The United States had a multifaceted diplomatic history in the mid-20th century, characterized by actions taken to maintain its interests. During the mid to late 1930s and into the 1940s, the expansionist ambitions of Nazi Germany under Adolf Hitler in Europe and Imperial Japan under Emperor Hirohito in Asia prompted the U.S. under President Franklin D. Roosevelt to shift its stance from isolationism to active engagement in World War II. The U.S. implemented a series of diplomatic, economic, and military measures to defeat these regimes, leading to their eventual capitulation, occupation, and transformation into U.S. allies. At the end of World War II, the U.S. faced a new adversary: the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin, who had been a crucial ally against Hitler and Hirohito. The Soviet Union’s expansion into Eastern Europe and Asia initiated the Cold War. Through a series of conflicts and geopolitical struggles, the U.S. eventually emerged as the key victor in the post-Cold War world combining military might with economic and diplomatic initiatives. The collapse of the Soviet Union left no superpower to challenge the U.S., granting it the opportunity to pursue military adventurism abroad.

However, Vladimir Putin's rise to power in 1999, amidst severe economic challenges in Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union, marked a significant shift in global geopolitics. Concurrently, Iran's support of radical Islamic groups in the Middle East and its pursuit of nuclear capabilities, along with China's economic expansion inspired by models like Singapore, which demonstrated economic development without liberal democracy, began to sow the seeds of opposition to U.S. dominance. These developments set the stage for the geopolitical struggles of the 21st century. These three nations believed that the liberal democracy promoted by the U.S. and its allies was unsuitable for their needs, favoring instead a synthesis that balanced capitalism with authoritarianism.

Geopolitical Tensions

The 2000s characterized by the September 11 attacks and subsequent US military adventurism in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003) under president George W. Bush saw a multifaceted response by countries like Russia, China, and Iran which at that time while disagreeing with the US on some foreign policy matters nevertheless agreed on the need to eliminate the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Russia, Iran, India, and the United States collaborated with each other to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, and to establish a new Afghan government. Not only did Iran cooperate with the United States, Russia actively helped it establish support bases in Central Asia. Meanwhile, China as a rising power supported the invasion of Afghanistan as a means to protect its domestic interests such as promotion of its national counter-terrorism efforts by cracking down on Uyghur separatists.

Contrastingly, the defeat of the Taliban and President Bush’s unfounded accusations of Iraq under Saddam Hussein possessing weapons of mass destruction precipitated the invasion of Iraq. This marked the onset of fissures in the relationship between the U.S. and nations such as Russia and China. Leveraging their status as permanent members of the UN Security Council, Russia and China obstructed U.S.-initiated resolutions on various matters, notably concerning Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011. Simultaneously, Iran, while condemning the U.S. invasion, perceived the fall of Saddam Hussein as an opportunity to augment its influence. It sought to bolster its proxies in Iraq, aiming to expel U.S. troops and assert greater control in the region.

Since the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and Communism, the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe has ignited tensions with Russia under Putin, who perceives this region as Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. The Bucharest Summit of 2008, which declared Ukraine and Georgia free to decide on their NATO membership, exacerbated the rift between the U.S. and Russia, already strained by a crisis over Washington’s missile defense system in Europe. Russia, closely monitoring U.S. military actions abroad, initiated its own assertive moves by invading Georgia in 2008, supporting separatist regions like Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The West's response was feeble, marked by calls for a ceasefire from EU leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy, and Barack Obama's 2008 victory promising a reset in relations with Russia. Under Obama's administration, U.S.-Russia relations presented a mixed picture. While cooperation existed on issues like Iran’s nuclear program and the signing of treaties to reduce nuclear arsenals, such as the advancement of the 123 Agreement in January 2011, tensions simmered. In 2011, Russia, alongside China, abstained or vetoed U.S. resolutions concerning Libya and Syria, where the U.S. pursued regime change against Muammar Gaddafi and Bashar al-Assad. Putin openly criticized NATO's intervention in Libya and the subsequent demise of Gaddafi. In 2014, relations further deteriorated following Putin’s annexation of Crimea in support of pro-Russian factions after the ouster of Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych. This move intensified competition among the U.S., EU, and Russia for influence in Ukraine, cementing frosty relations between the major powers.

Regarding China, the U.S. has maintained a strict approach to human rights since the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. This period has witnessed a multifaceted approach, with China often mediating between North Korea and the United States. However, senior U.S. political figures, such as Dick Cheney, have been criticized for hypocritically condemning China’s growing military spending. Under the Obama administration, the U.S. shifted its focus to Asia, where relations with China experienced both warmth and tension. This was exemplified by dissident Chen Guangchen seeking refuge in the U.S. embassy in Beijing and the Sunny lands Summit, where President Obama met with China’s new president, Xi Jinping. Joint agreements on issues like climate change and North Korea were reached. Nonetheless, tensions simmered, particularly regarding trade and China's militarization of the South China Sea since Xi assumed power in November 2012. Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran relations have seen their share of disagreements. Iran rejected the U.S. State Department’s classification of it as the “most active state sponsor of terrorism.” However, a détente was evident, with Iran supporting a U.S.- and U.N.-backed deal designed to provide fuel for Tehran’s research reactor for medical needs and remove a large part of Iran’s enriched uranium from its control. Additionally, the P5+1, consisting of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, along with Germany, engaged in talks with Iran throughout the 2010s, leading to the establishment of the Iran nuclear deal in July 2015. This deal offered billions of dollars in sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for dismantling its nuclear program. Both Iran and the U.S. recognized the need to combat ISIS. Nevertheless, tensions persisted, particularly in areas like Syria, where Iran and Russia supported President Assad, in contrast to the U.S. Furthermore, the U.S. continued to impose sanctions on Iran for its human rights violations, such as the alleged voting fraud in the 2009 Iranian election.

Since the rise of Donald Trump in 2017, U.S. relations with Russia, China, and Iran took a significant turn. President Trump engaged in a series of diplomatic talks with Vladimir Putin, such as the 2018 Helsinki summit, and reached an agreement for a ceasefire in Syria during the 2017 G20 Hamburg summit. Additionally, the U.S., China, and Russia committed to the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Despite these efforts, tensions persisted. For instance, the U.S. continued to impose sanctions on Russia, and issues like Venezuela saw the U.S. backing opposition candidate Juan Guaido while Russia supported incumbent president Nicolas Maduro. Tensions escalated further when Trump decided to send 1,000 U.S. troops to NATO member Poland, which the Russian foreign ministry described as a “further dangerous build-up of military capabilities on the continent.” Meanwhile, although President Trump and President Xi Jinping initially appeared to get along well during their meeting at the Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, tensions exacerbated after Trump launched a trade war with China, accusing it of taking advantage of free-trade rules to the detriment of U.S. firms operating in Beijing. In 2018, Trump introduced a new national security policy that characterized China and Russia as threats to U.S. dominance.

Trump's foreign policy also led to a series of tensions with Iran, starting with the reimposition of sanctions and the withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This move strained U.S. relations with other JCPOA signatories, including France, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, and Russia, who continued to support the agreement. Tensions further escalated with the U.S. assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officer Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iran to promise “vigorous revenge” and straining America's image worldwide. Additionally, Iran’s staunch support for Palestine and opposition to Israel contrasted sharply with Trump’s strong support for Israel, exemplified by moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing it as the capital of Israel.

Strategic Imperatives

The relationship between Russia, China, and Iran has seen ups and downs. During the late 1990s, through agreements such as the Sino-Russian agreement 1997 Joint Declaration on “to promote the multi-polarisation of the world and the establishment of a new international order” and subsequent joint statements. During the apex of US structural primacy, Russia’s “unhappiness with the prevalent distribution of power was accompanied by a strong advocacy of multipolarity and a persistent investigation of third party arrangements that might carry some potential for balancing America’s preponderance” which included the strengthening of relations with those “potentially hostile to the West” such as Iran, China, and India. Iran has also factored into mainstream Russian foreign policy discussions on the creation of a geopolitical union consisting of the major power centers on the Eurasian landmass including the idea of a “Eurasian quadrangle” consisting of China, Russia, India, and Iran – a union that broadens Foreign Minister Evgeniy Primakov’s 1998 proposal for the Moscow-Beijing-Delhi “strategic triangle”.

However, since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union, relations between China and Russia have soared to new heights. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was established in 2001 with original members including Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. That same year, China and Russia signed the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, which aimed to enhance relations between the two countries to a completely new level. In 2004, the two nations resolved their longstanding border dispute, facilitating increased trade and Russia’s arms sales to China. The 2010s saw further strengthening of ties between China and Russia, exemplified by the renewal of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2011, which elevated their relationship to a strategic partnership. President Xi Jinping's visit to Moscow in 2019 resulted in a joint statement that outlined five principles to maintain good relations. Additionally, China maintained a neutral stance on Russia’s annexation of Crimea, calling for dialogue to de-escalate tensions. This neutrality underscored the pragmatic and cooperative nature of the Sino-Russian relationship in the contemporary geopolitical landscape.

Meanwhile, Iran’s relations with Russia have also strengthened during this period. In the 1990s, which saw a decline of Third-Worldism, President Mohammed Khatami’s foreign minister, Kamal Kharrazi, sought to involve Iran in Primakov’s 1998 proposal for a Moscow-Beijing-Delhi “strategic triangle.” Iran shares a vision with Russia and China for a multipolar world, emphasizing the essential role of non-Western organizations and countries like Iran, India, Brazil, China, and Russia in shifting the centralization of power away from the West. Conceptually, a multipolar system provides Iran with more opportunities at the regional and international levels, as the distribution of power among multiple regional poles makes the imposition of a single dominant power’s will untenable. The 2010s saw Russia enhance its relations with China and Iran through the signing of several treaties. For instance, the three countries have aligned language on international law, as evidenced by treaties such as the 2016 Declaration of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the Promotion of International Law, and the 2020 Declaration of the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran on the Promotion of International Law. Both treaties emphasize sovereign equality, non-interference, and the non-use of force, while decrying the extraterritorial application of national law, unilateral sanctions, and regime change under the guise of human rights. These synergies show how Russia has capitalized on the general antipathy toward perceived Western attempts to undermine the conceptual certainty of sovereignty and to use human rights concerns to interfere in the internal affairs of states. Russia and Iran have also enhanced their cooperation in the field of energy, such as their 2014 agreement for Russia to help Iran build up to eight additional nuclear reactors. According to an agreement signed in July 2016, Russia will provide a loan to fund 85 percent of the construction costs of a 1,400-megawatt thermal power plant in Sirik. Both Russia and Iran are united in their staunch support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, providing diplomatic and military support to help his regime against opposition militants backed by the U.S., Britain, France, Israel, and Gulf Arab states.

Meanwhile, China, with its burgeoning economic power and military prowess, has significantly expanded its relations with Iran. For instance, following the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2017, Chinese investment experienced a dramatic surge. This unilateral move by the U.S. not only facilitated but also catalyzed China's deepening involvement, allowing it to bolster its position as a responsible stakeholder on the international stage. Beijing has consistently fostered political and economic cooperation with Tehran, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining a friendly and constructive role. Despite facing sanctions, China has persistently imported a notable quantity of Iranian oil through intermediary nations and employed ship-to-ship (STS) transfers to circumvent the imposed restrictions. In a significant development, in 2021, the two nations inked a comprehensive 25-year roadmap for cooperation, solidifying their relationship under a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This agreement entails substantial investments over a quarter-century span, particularly directed towards enhancing Iran's infrastructure, financial sector, and oil industries. As part of this partnership, both sides have pledged to elevate their bilateral trade to more than tenfold, aiming to reach a remarkable $600 billion by the year 2026.

Since Joe Biden became president in 2021, his foreign policy maneuvers have driven Russia, China, and Iran to further embrace each other as strategic allies. Their main goal is to challenge the US-led unipolar world and establish a multipolar world order. They have employed various methods to achieve this aim. Firstly, military means have been utilized to further their geopolitical interests. For instance, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was met with widespread condemnation from the West, resulting in the imposition of sanctions on Russia and sustained military support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Iran has provided drones to Russia, further straining its relations with the West and Ukraine. Additionally, tensions have risen between Iran and the US following their differing responses to the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023. Iran and Russia have enhanced their military cooperation by supplying each other with essential military materials. For Russia, Iran is a valuable partner to increase pressure on the US in the Middle East. Given the use of Iranian drones in Ukraine, Tehran and Moscow are forming a de facto united front against the United States from the Black Sea to the Persian Gulf. Moscow views Ukraine as a proxy state used by Washington to inflict pain on Russia, prompting Russia to regard Iran as an instrument to retaliate against the US.

Secondly, these three countries seek to promote their ascent through peaceful means, such as endorsing organizations that advocate for a multipolar world by fostering cooperation. They endeavor to bolster their influence, particularly in the global South, by championing non-Western intergovernmental platforms. For instance, in July 2023, Iran ascended to membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and subsequently joined BRICS in January 2024. By aligning with the SCO, Iran aims to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions by accessing crucial economic benefits. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi have underscored the imperative for the nation to "look to the East," seeking strategic alliances that can facilitate the negotiation of new agreements, address banking and trade challenges resulting from U.S. sanctions, and fortify Iran's standing in the Middle East and Asia.

Meanwhile, Iran’s successful accession to BRICS membership on 1 January 2024, alongside Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Ethiopia, heralds significant consequences for the deepening relationship between Iran, Russia, and China. As China and Russia endeavor to leverage BRICS as a platform for advocating a multipolar world in opposition to Western dominance, Iran’s inclusion fortifies their alliance in several key ways. Primarily, as nations such as Russia, China, and Brazil champion de-dollarization, advocating for the use of non-dollar currencies in trade, Iran finds considerable appeal in this initiative. Viewing it as an opportunity to alleviate the economic strain imposed by U.S. sanctions, Iran aims to bolster its exports—both oil and non-oil—by embracing the Chinese Yuan, local currencies, and barter arrangements within BRICS frameworks. Moreover, the expansion of BRICS enables Russia and China to actively contest the hegemony of Western-led multilateral forums, such as the G7. Simultaneously, they adopt a pragmatic approach by engaging with other non-Western dominated organizations, including ASEAN (the Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This diversified engagement strategy underscores their commitment to fostering alternative power structures beyond Western influence.

Russia, China, and Iran share many commonalities that draw them together. Despite lacking common ideological values essential for alliances like NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and the EU (European Union), which advocate for Liberal Democracy and defend human rights, these nations are united in their fervent opposition to Western interference in their regions. For Russia, color revolutions in former Soviet nations like Ukraine and Georgia are viewed as Western-orchestrated coups aimed at diminishing its influence. Iran similarly accuses the West of supporting internal protest movements to incite unrest. China opposes perceived Western interference in fueling protests in Hong Kong. On the international stage, China and Russia, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, have supported Iran against US resolutions regarding the 2018 protests, shielding each other from international criticism. Additionally, China opposes US alliances in the Asia-Pacific region, a sentiment echoed by Russia and Iran. According to international relations expert Zafar Bangash, Russia, China, and Iran share the goal of expelling American interference from Eurasia and their perceived spheres of influence.

Despite these commonalities, the extent to which they constitute an alliance raises a complex inquiry. For example, while military ties between Iran and Russia deepen, the Islamic Republic is unlikely to be drawn into a Middle Eastern quagmire solely for Russia’s benefit. Iran has no intention of engaging in direct conflict with the U.S. or Israel, thus placing limits on Moscow’s aspirations to utilize Iran as a distraction against the West. Moreover, President Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA, while providing an opportunity for Russia, Iran, and China to strengthen their relations, did not result in unanimous support. Russia, despite benefiting from the situation, criticized Iran for its uranium enrichment activities while condemning the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA. Additionally, Russia and China are not inclined to advocate for a nuclear Iran to preserve the balance of power in Eurasia, viewing Iran as a potential partner in their coalition rather than a nuclear power. Regarding Ukraine, although China and Russia share a growing friendship, their differences regarding the conflict in Ukraine are less severe. China seeks a peaceful resolution to the conflict, as evidenced by its formulation of the 12 points of peace in February 2023 to address the Ukraine Crisis. Furthermore, while China aims to strengthen economic ties with Russia, it refrains from providing military support, prioritizing its substantial trading relations with the United States, the European Union, and Japan, which are crucial for its economy.

Implications

The burgeoning ties between Russia, China, and Iran carry significant implications for the global order, signaling a shift in the balance of power away from the West and towards non-Western actors. This trend underscores the increasing influence of non-Western players on the world stage. The West's inconsistent response to events such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Israel's actions in Gaza has drawn criticism from many countries in the Global South. These nations have pointed out the West's double standards, advocating instead for peaceful negotiations to resolve conflicts. Russia has adeptly seized upon this disaffection to expand its influence in the Global South, as evidenced by the formulation of "The Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation" on March 31, 2023. This strategy aims to cultivate closer ties with Global South nations, compensating for Russia's strained relationships with the United States and European Union. Many Global South countries objected to Western sanctions on Russia and the arming of Ukraine, further driving them towards Moscow's orbit. Simultaneously, Russia and China are actively courting allies from non-Western nations like Iran through international organizations that cater to the interests of the Global South. By sidestepping Western norms on democracy and human rights, these partnerships foster development and collaboration on global issues, free from the constraints of Western influence.

Nonetheless, the burgeoning ties between Russia, China, and Iran present both an opportunity and a challenge for the US and its allies in maintaining a unipolar world order. At the current trajectory, continued insistence by the US and its allies on framing global relations solely in terms of countering Russian and Chinese influence, coupled with an emphasis on human rights considerations, risks driving more nations in the Global South towards embracing Russian and Chinese intergovernmental organizations, thereby further diminishing Western influence. Recognizing this dynamic, the United States, leveraging its status as a superpower, can engage Russia, China, and Iran in constructive dialogue to identify areas of mutual agreement. However, such engagement will undoubtedly encounter obstacles, particularly amidst the backdrop of severe political polarization within the US. Pursuing consensus may require compromises on principles that underpin the vision of a unipolar world, potentially inviting criticism from domestic quarters. Critics may accuse the current US administration of either displaying weakness or of acting as an apologist for revisionist authoritarian regimes seeking to reshape the global balance of power. Hence, the US must endeavor to adopt a collaborative approach, bolstering cooperation with these key nations on issues vital to global stability and progress. These include conflicts such as those in Ukraine and Gaza, the urgent challenge of climate change, initiatives for sustainable economic development, and a host of other pressing global concerns. Through fostering collaborative endeavors, the US can not only address complex geopolitical realities but also promote a more inclusive and sustainable framework for global governance.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the emergence of a cohesive alliance between Russia, China, and Iran marks a pivotal shift in the global power dynamics, posing a formidable challenge to the longstanding hegemony of the United States. As this coalition continues to deepen its collaboration and coordination, the international landscape is witnessing a reconfiguration of power relations, with implications reaching far beyond traditional geopolitical boundaries. The historical context, geopolitical tensions, strategic imperatives, and shared objectives of these nations underscore the significance of this anti-Western alliance in reshaping the global order. As the world navigates through these complex dynamics, understanding the motivations and actions of Russia, China, and Iran becomes imperative for policymakers and analysts alike. Moving forward, the implications of this evolving alliance on global stability and international relations will require careful consideration and strategic responses to navigate a multipolar world.