Diplomatic tensions - need for dialogues and diplomacy

12 March 2023

"Keep your friends close

and your enemies closer"

In the 20th and 21st centuries, the theme of great power competition is something that has rocked the foundation of geopolitical world order. However, too much hostility and arrogance can lead to confrontation risking many lives of the common people. We have seen this in World War I where it was not a battle between good vs evil, but a battle for imperial domination in the name of fervent nationalism. But its impact would lead to World War II due to the arrogance of the victors (France and Britain) towards Germany, which gave rise to Hitler.

Then came the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Even though the Cold War saw violence through proxy wars, both the US and USSR were aware of the need to work together for peace. This is where the framework of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer comes into play.

Even though the Cold War would end in favor of the West, the arrogance of the West towards Russia would set the stage for a new Cold War. In this world, we see tensions between major powers like the United States and Russia, United States and China, India and China, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Japan and China, Japan and Russia etc. Thus, the best way of trying to solve great power tensions is to not put one’s perspective over another’s perspective but through compromise. The idea of Detente hence comes to play, whose mastermind former US president Richard Nixon used it as a way to enhance US relations with ideological adversaries like the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China as a means to enhance peace in Europe and Asia. This led to a reduction of the arms race, as well as opening new economic opportunities with the Soviet Union and China. This was achieved because both the players were willing to understand each other’s perspectives on different issues like nuclear weapons.

US President Richard Nixon with Soviet Leader Leonid Brezhnev

Nixon with Chinese leader Mao Zedong

In the post-cold war world, however, we are seeing a resurgence of the world from the late 1940’s. For example, the current US unipolar world order is facing challenges from the rise of China and its rock- solid relation with Russia, pushing the world towards a new multipolar world order. For example, Russia believes that the rapid NATO expansion into its traditional sphere of influence like Eastern Europe and the Caucasus would make Russia not just stand there and watch but take action, as in the case of Moldova (1990-present), Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014, 2022-present). This has the tacit support of China who itself is facing threats from US alliances to contain China in the Pacific like AUKUS, QUAD, etc. making China to flex its muscles along its borders. Also, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan made tensions reach a severe high point due to lack of understanding of China’s perspective on Taiwan i.e., that Taiwan is part of China.

The fueling of tensions with Russia and China hence gives reminder to the point of keeping your friends close and your enemies closer. This is because both these countries have significant nuclear weapons, which if used could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. Hence, the best way for the US to improve its relations with Russia and China are:

1. Understanding of each other’s perspectives

This is the main mistake made by the current Biden administration’s policy towards Russia and China as he emphasized an American centric perspective. For example, in the Russo-Ukrainian war, the West kept giving weapons to Ukraine thereby fueling the flames of war and the humongous calamities that followed in its wake instead of using their stature as world powers to broker an immediate ceasefire.

With China, the US emphasized on interfering in Taiwan over China’s need for reunification of Taiwan with the Mainland China. Constant US military exercises with allies like Japan, Australia, India etc. have not intimidated China but urged it to take action to stop further violation of its sovereignty.

Thus, the best way to deal with the current Ukraine crisis is to ease Russia’s concerns about NATO expansion. This can be done by not allowing nations which Russia considers its traditional sphere of influence to be part of NATO. Also, NATO must remove all military bases from former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union nations so as not provoke Russia into retaliation. For China, the US must stop conducting secret diplomacy with Taiwan because China finds these actions a violation of its sovereignty and the One-China Policy. The US must also stop conducting military drills near China’s borders.

2. Stop raising the bogey of China as a grave threat to the free world

China historically has only used soft power to spread its influence around the globe. Baring incursions into Vietnam in 1979 and India in 1962 followed by voluntary withdrawals, it has never sent its military into other countries.

Nowadays, the US and its allies pose the paper threat of China as “pure evil”. In the world, everything happens because of a cause, thus, acting maturely against rival countries lowers the risk of military conflict. As the most powerful country in the world, the US can halt tensions with Russia and China by pressuring its allies to do so.

For example, in December 2022, Japan announced a new security document emphasizing increased military spending to counter security threats like China, Russia, and North Korea. The US welcomed this decision, which reflects a growing acceptance of militarism as a means to solve tensions. This proves that the revival of Japanese militarism is used as a means to meet US geopolitical goals. Instead, the US can encourage Japan to negotiate with Russia, China, and North Korea over different agendas like the resolution of border disputes like the Kuril islands dispute with Russia, the Senkaku islands dispute with China, and proper security for North Korea.

For Russia, the US has the potential to end the Ukraine conflict because as the most powerful nation on the world stage, the US can end the bloodshed. One way to do this is to find neutral allies in the war like India. The US can help Ukraine achieve reconciliation with Russia with the help of India because India has good relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Also, the US must encourage the EU and Ukraine to stop taking unilateral actions that offend Russia. This is because continuous isolation of Russia through sanctions and international isolation has encouraged it to continue its offensive in Ukraine.

3. Learn from the past

Many claim that previous historical events don’t need much attention because that was all in the past. However, we often tend to underestimate how understanding past mistakes can be useful to prevent future mistakes from happening. As George Santayana famously said, “those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it”.

In the context of the Ukraine war, it could have been prevented if the US, the EU, and Ukraine understood Russia’s concerns about making Ukraine a NATO member near Russia. This has been an issue since the enlargement of NATO into Eastern Europe in 1999. The most important mistake the West is making is failing to learn from the mistakes of the Paris Peace Conference, where Germany’s humiliation gave rise to Hitler. This combined with Germany’s poor economic situation in 1929 gave rise to Hitler and his Nazis. This proves time and time again that peace in Europe can only be achieved if Russia is treated fairly.

One cannot change the past, for crying over spilt milk is of no use. The best way to end the Ukraine crisis is through negotiations. In these negotiations, there must be consideration of both sides perspectives i.e., not putting one nation over another as this escalated the conflict. In Sun Tzu’s art of war, the speaker emphasizes on giving a golden bridge to your opponent. In the context of the Ukraine war, Putin must be given a way out with assurance from the US and EU. That way, he will feel secure over Russia’s security concerns and respect the sovereignty of Ukraine.

Conclusion

Nowadays, the world has seen an increased use of hard power over soft power as a means to solve great power tensions. For example, when the United States deals with Russia and China it uses hard power actions that violate Russia’s and China’s policies in their area of influence i.e., Taiwan and Ukraine. To solve this, the United States should reach out to these countries as a means to understand their perspectives on issues concerning them.

The United States can make Taiwan and Ukraine negotiate with Russia and China. However, the main challenge is that Taiwan, Ukraine and other countries could accuse America of taking the side of their oppressors, as well as domestic actors accusing the US of acting like an apologist for the authoritarian regimes of China and Russia for their actions against democratic Ukraine and Taiwan.

Overall, the United States must ensure that it does not put one country’s perspective over another country’s perspective while entering into negotiations with Russia and China over their interests in Ukraine and Taiwan. Neutrality and non-interference is also an option as poking the slumbering bear and waking the spitting dragon will not be of interest to anyone and a great threat to peace and stability in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific region.

Finally, one needs to ask oneself, is it too late for peace in the Russian-Ukraine war that has seen the completion of one year? The abomination that is war is now going on in the middle of Europe

and it has left millions displaced and thousands dead and wounded. The injustice meted out to Ukraine emotionally united Europe as one but today we see opinions like the one spouted by Gary

Kasparov (former World Chess Champion, political activist and defector from Russia) in a television interview that the only way the war can end is to defeat Russia, put Putin and his cohorts to trial on

war crime charges and make Russia pay war reparations. In the USA, politicians like Senator Mitt Romney are portraying this war as a war of “good vs evil” apparently implying that Ukrainians should fight this evil to the last Ukrainian standing while the USA and its allies will provide all possible covert and overt support from the sidelines while at the same time waging an economic war on Russia through sanctions. Even a nuanced thinker like Slavoj Zizek seem to feel that “Ukraine fights for global freedom, inclusive of the freedom of Russians themselves” and at this point of time to cling to pacifism in the face of the Russian attack on Ukraine is to live in an imaginary world “in which tensions are no longer resolved through armed conflicts….Europe persisted in this world of “imagine”, ignoring the brutal reality outside its borders. Now it’s the time to awaken.”

Nevertheless, in spite of all the varying opinions cited above, I firmly believe that it is not too late for peace and moving forward I tend to side with the prediction of Yanis Varoufakis that sooner or later there will be peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv sponsored and presided over by the USA with other participants like the European Union, China and maybe even India. Needless to say, sooner is far better than later.